Quote:
Originally Posted by KC_Connection
You're not being at all specific here.
But what kind of strikeout rate can you have, then? You're the expert writing off 22 year olds here. Is there like this set number that a player can't go over?
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In the immortal words of Justice Potter Stewart - "I know it when I see it..."
When you go through his numbers - those figures jump off the page. They come off ahead of his OPS, his HR #s, etc... Just look at them - those are clearly not typical. I don't know what my cutoff is, but I know that Travis Snider's way the hell beyond it.
You want to just ignore them because he's 22, but those are not numbers you ignore when they're that extreme.
I suppose it's kinda like the marriage question - if you have to ask if you should get married, then you probably shouldn't. If you have to ask if his numbers are close to the line? They probably aren't.
Travis Snider's are nowhere close to the line. That kind of command of the strike zone is
highly unlikely to improve significantly. Yeah, I'm comfortable writing him off as a superstar. I certainly wouldn't be willing to include him as a primary component of a trade for a legitimate major league star.
But I tell you what - here's your argument: Jay Bruce.
Their minor league numbers are stunningly similar. And I figure Jay Bruce will be one of the next true superstars. But what Bruce has done (and in similar circumstances to Snider, with injuries, etc...) is improve incrimentally at all those peripheral stats at the
major league level and he's done it every season.
It wasn't until Snider got to the major league level and swung at everything they threw up there that I lost faith in him. Bruce didn't do that.
Like it or not - historically, that means a hell of a lot.