Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu
Unrealistic expectations are fueling all this talk of bust. As long as the guy ends up being a solid contributor for a number of years, he'll be a successful pick. Sure you can get pro-bowlers at the top of the second round, but the vast majority of those selected in that part of the draft don't go on to become pro-bowlers. Whether he's ever a starter or not (and I doubt he will be whether he plays running back or slot receiver), as long as he's a solid contributor, I'll be satisfied with him.
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OK, "vast" majority might have been a bit of an overstatement on my part, but it's a clear majority. I spot checked 5 years worth of draft (from 1996 to 2000) to see how the 36th overall pick +/- 2 picks (picks 34, 35, 36, 37, and 38) fared and found that 28% eventually made the pro bowl during their career. So, IMO, a solid contributor is what you should expect from that pick and if you end up with a pro-bowl quality player, you've exceeded expectations.