Originally Posted by eazyb81
duncan I admire the effort but you basically argued the bear case for each individual player. Scherzer and Porcello could also continue to improve, just like we are expecting our prospects to do. It is unreasonable to assume all the Tigers will deteriorate and all the Royals will get better.
And your last point about money appears moot. Mike Illitch has a net worth of $2 billion and apparently is willing to spend for a winner. There's nothing stopping him from spending another $100 million on payroll in the coming years if he has the money.
A lot of the optimism about KC's chances in the coming years was due to the assumption that Chicago and Detroit would not spend like NYY or Boston; if they do, then that changes things because Glass will never spend anywhere close to that.
Fair enough. Was just trying to provide a counterpoint to "oh, we're ****ed. Which was my first thought, too."
I don't think my comments on Porcello were "Bear market" comments. The guy has pitched three full major leagues seasons and has never struck out more than 5.1 batters per nine. It is EXTREMELY difficult to jump up that type of record. Without a sharp increase in K rate or a complete elimination of walks, he's going to be a completely luck- and fielding-dependent pitcher on a team with terrible defense.
Scherzer and Fister, that's fair. Max is, as I said, one of my favorite players (stems from watching him so much at Mizzou and being part of "Scherzer's flotilla). He definitely has the talent/stuff to improve, but he's got a pretty established record that seems to define what he is. Fister had a crazy-low BABIP in his stint as a Tiger, but he did have a sharp increase in K rate with Detroit. So maybe they found a mechanical thing or had him emphasize a certain pitch more to create that bump.
Definitely not bear market to say their farm system sucks beyond Jacob Turner (who is pretty legit).
They're going to have to spend their way past some of these holes in the coming years, and you're right that Ilitch will spend. But how much money is he willing to lose on the Tigers? Reports are he lost $20 million last year, and he's adding $30 million in salary, at least (Scherzer and Verlander both get big bumps this year).
Like I said. They're the favorites this year, for sure. But the next few years will be interesting (especially with watching them try to unload Victor Martinez or play Cabrera at 3B or LF).