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Old 02-14-2012, 06:04 PM   #772
alnorth alnorth is offline
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Speaking of stolen bases, found this neat little chart, based on 2009-2011 data.



Based on that, and based on the last couple years, I'd say the following players have the green light to steal second whenever the hell they want, unless the game situation demands they not steal.

Dyson (obviously)
Getz
Escobar
Giavotella (small sample)

These guys are good enough to give it a shot with 2 outs, but should probably stay until then, unless the game situation demands taking a risk, or if they spot a tell that reliably broadcasts when the pitcher is going home.

Hosmer
Gordon
Frenchy

The rest either have too-limited data to really say, or aren't stealing for a good reason (Butler)

and, if you are curious, here's the charts for the other situations.







Which confirms the old rule of thumb to never make the 1st or last out at 3rd. It is also kind of interesting how the double steal's payoff drives down the break-even point, compared to just stealing 3rd. A double steal with no out doesn't look crazy with a fast lead runner, too.
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