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Old 07-23-2012, 12:10 AM   #113
Aries Walker Aries Walker is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
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Slow night at work tonight. So, electoral maps.

CNN, CNN (Carville), CNN (Castellano), HuffPo, 270toWin, MSNBC (scroll down), RealClearPolitics, and USAToday. I can't find one for FOX News.

They all agree the following states are most likely going to Obama:
Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine. They total 196 electoral votes.

They all agree the following states are most likely going to Romney:
Hawai'i, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and West Virginia. They total 181 electoral votes.

Assuming they all hold true, which I think is a safe bet, Obama leads 196 to 181, with 161 unallocated. 270 are needed to win.

As for the other states (number of delegates for each state in parenthesis):
- Carville and HuffPo say Nevada (6) is going Obama; everyone else says it will be a toss-up. It went Democrat last time, but Republican in '04 and '00.
- Colorado (9) is the same, except it's Castellano and HuffPo who call it Democrat. It also went D last time, but R in '04 and '00.
- Only the USAToday is calling New Mexico (5) a toss-up; everyone else says it's going Obama. It went for Democratic in '08 and '00, but Republican in '04.
- Only HuffPo and USAToday are calling Iowa (6) for Obama. Everyone else says it's too close to call. It went Democrat in '08 and '00, but Republican in '04.
- Everyone is calling Missouri (10) for Romney, except RealClearPolitics, who says it's a toss-up. It's gone Republican the last three times.
- CNN, Carville, Castellano, and HuffPo all give Wisconsin (10) to Obama; 270ToWin, MSNBC, RealClearPolitics, and USAToday all call it too close to call. It has gone Democrat the last three times.
- HuffPo RealClearPolitics, and USAToday say Michigan (16) is too close to call; the other five call it for Obama. It's also gone Democrat the last three times.
- Only Carville calls Ohio (18) for Obama; everyone else says it's too close to call. It went to Obama in '08, but to Bush in '04 and '00.
- Castellano calls Florida (29) for Romney; everyone else says it's a toss-up. It also went for Obama in '08, and Bush in '04 and '00.
- CNN, Carville, and Castellano all call North Carolina (15) for Romney; the other five all say it's too close to call. It too went Obama in '08, and Bush in '04 and '00.
- Everyone says Virginia (13) is too close to call, except Carville calls it for Obama, and Castellano calls it for Romney. It went for Obama in '08, but Bush in '04 and '00.
- 270ToWin and USAToday call Pennsylvania (20) too close to call, but everyone else says it's going Obama. It's gone Democrat the past three elections.
- Carville and HuffPo call New Hampshire for Obama; everyone else says it's too close. It went Democrat in '08 and '04, but Republican in '00.

Last edited by Aries Walker; 07-23-2012 at 12:19 AM.. Reason: Left out DC.
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