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Old 07-22-2012, 11:35 PM   #117
Aries Walker Aries Walker is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
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Continuing. Let's narrow down the contested states a bit.

The following states have only one or two sources out of eight disputing it, so I'll give them to the majority consensus: New Mexico and Pennsylvania to Obama, Missouri to Romney. Now it's Obama 221, Romney 191, 126 unallocated.

More than half of the sources say Michigan will probably go Obama way. That, coupled with the fact that it's gone Democrat the last three times, leads me to put it in the Obama camp. Obama 237, Romney 191, 110 unallocated.

Of those 110, Romney would need to pick up 79. The importance of Florida cannot be overstated; if Obama were to get it, it would place him at 266 and Romney would need to capture every other contested state, which I don't see happening. So if Romney loses Florida, he almost certainly loses - but for the sake of keeping the argument going, let's say he wins it. Obama 237, Romney 200, 81 unallocated.

Romney still needs to win 50 of those 81, which are Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4). He would have to win either Ohio or North Carolina, because if Obama took both of those, Obama would win.

However you slice it, Romney has an uphill road ahead of him. He has to - he has *got* to - win Florida; otherwise his only chance I think is to turn Michigan, which is a long shot at best.
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