Originally Posted by BigRedChief
No, i don't have access to Silver's emperical data but we all have access to the historical track record of that data. It is amazingly accuarte even when he picks Republicans to win or lose.
The question I'd ask about any predictor's claim of accuracy would be how accurate how far in advance? All the pollsters polls get more accurate as the election becomes imminent, for example, but 2 months out they are less so. I know that Silver has a good reputation, but it's not obvious to me that his reputation is built on two month advance predictions. That's all I'm saying.
"Well, it is one thing for Bill Clinton to say, I feel your pain. It is another thing for Barack Obama to say I feel your pain that I have caused." - George Will