Originally Posted by patteeu
The question I'd ask about any predictor's claim of accuracy would be how accurate how far in advance? All the pollsters polls get more accurate as the election becomes imminent, for example, but 2 months out they are less so. I know that Silver has a good reputation, but it's not obvious to me that his reputation is built on two month advance predictions. That's all I'm saying.
Elections have ebbs and flows. Somebody picking early in 1988 would have had Dukakis in a landslide. Certainly nobody can foresee the problems and pitfalls that are on the campaign trail. I think even a week before the election some have trouble picking a winner. In 2000 most networks called Florida for Gore comfortably on election day.
They just don't have the fine points to be able to call the individual close races like 538 can. Right up until the last election most thought that Pennsylvania would be close and that the election would hinge there. 538 saw past that. He predicted every state correctly except Indiana which was won by Obama by 1%. He also predicted correctly every senate race. The guy is good at what he does.
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.