Originally Posted by whoman69
Elections have ebbs and flows. Somebody picking early in 1988 would have had Dukakis in a landslide. Certainly nobody can foresee the problems and pitfalls that are on the campaign trail. I think even a week before the election some have trouble picking a winner. In 2000 most networks called Florida for Gore comfortably on election day.
They just don't have the fine points to be able to call the individual close races like 538 can. Right up until the last election most thought that Pennsylvania would be close and that the election would hinge there. 538 saw past that. He predicted every state correctly except Indiana which was won by Obama by 1%. He also predicted correctly every senate race. The guy is good at what he does.
Again, you're not identifying when he made those predictions.