Thread: Elections 538
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:38 PM   #60
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Those lean states from Obama are now all moving to the likely category with the exception of Florida, which is moving towards likely. Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia are all over 70% likelihood of being in the Obama column. Wisconsin has moved to an 80% probability of going Obama. North Carolina remains a lean state for Romney but is trending towards Obama. Arizona and even Indiana have moved out of the safe column for Romney. Montana and Missouri are also trending towards Obama. Despite many, including CNN, that consider Michigan to be a battleground state, 538 believes it is safe for Obama. That belief is probably shared by the Romney campaign as he is not advertising there. Most likely if he did then Obama would be able to bring out the fact that Romney is on record against the successful auto bailout.

On the whole the Obama campaign is now up to a 77.3% chance of winning with an average haul of 313 EC votes.

So whats the math for Romney? If he were to somehow flip every state that is less than 80% probability of going to Obama, he gets to 281 votes. He simply has to have Ohio in his column or he is not going to win. That's a pretty tall order. I would say maybe he should try to put Pennsylvania in play.
Didnt you watch Clinton? It's obvious that arthimitic is an issue for Republicans.

They have given up on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Romeny ad buys tell us what they are thinking of their chances. They have a shitload of money and still didnt buy in those states.

Do the arithmitic R's? Without those 3 states where's your path to 270?
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