Thread: Elections 538
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Old 09-07-2012, 09:56 PM   #67
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
okay I went and created a map on this site:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

I gave Romney all the Mcain states and all these states below that Obama won last time

Ohio
Florida
Neveda
North Carolina
Iowa
Indiana

And he still loses.
I think NC and Indiana are already likely to be in Romney's column.

Nevada is likely going to go to Obama.

Ohio and VA are leaning strongly toward Obama. But if somehow Romney were to claw those into his column, then Obama could take NV, CO, IA, PA, WI, and MI as still lose.

I agree that the numbers look really bad for the Republicans. The whole race is leaning strongly toward Obama, but there are still many pathways toward a Romney victory. My guess is that Obama's biggest threat between now and November is the Romeny and Pac war chests. If Romeny can get off the defensive and unleash an onslaught of attack ads, will Obama be able to counter them with 2/3 of the money? I also think Romeny is going to have to do something substantial in getting his policy out, which so far he hasn't done. But there is still a lot of time.
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