Originally Posted by cdcox
I think NC and Indiana are already likely to be in Romney's column.
Nevada is likely going to go to Obama.
Ohio and VA are leaning strongly toward Obama. But if somehow Romney were to claw those into his column, then Obama could take NV, CO, IA, PA, WI, and MI as still lose.
I agree that the numbers look really bad for the Republicans. The whole race is leaning strongly toward Obama, but there are still many pathways toward a Romney victory. My guess is that Obama's biggest threat between now and November is the Romeny and Pac war chests. If Romeny can get off the defensive and unleash an onslaught of attack ads, will Obama be able to counter them with 2/3 of the money? I also think Romeny is going to have to do something substantial in getting his policy out, which so far he hasn't done. But there is still a lot of time.
Every plausible path for Romney must have Ohio, Florida and Virgina. Romeny will not take Ohio.
Sept. 7: Polls Find Hints of Obama Convention Bounce
By NATE SILVER
The three national tracking polls that were published on Friday all moved toward President Obama, probably reflecting momentum from the Democratic convention.
In the Gallup national tracking poll, Mr. Obama moved into a three-point lead over Mitt Romney, up from one point on Thursday.
Whatís a bit more worrisome for Mr. Romney is that Gallupís reporting of the head-to-head results in its poll occurs over a lengthy seven-day window, meaning that only a minority of the interviews in the poll were conducted before the major speeches at the Democratic convention.
In fact, most of the interviews in the poll were conducted just after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., a period in which Mr. Romney should have been enjoying a convention bounce of his own.
Gallupís approval ratings, however, are published over a three-day window, meaning that they will be quicker to respond to shifts in opinion. Mr. Obamaís approval ratings shot up to 52 percent in the version of poll published on Friday, while his disapproval ratings declined to 43 percent. The FiveThirtyEight forecast model does not use approval ratings directly, but this is a sign that there could be more good news for Mr. Obama in the head-to-head portion of the poll in the days ahead. Read moreÖ