Thread: Elections 538
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Old 09-08-2012, 04:16 PM   #82
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Didnt you watch Clinton? It's obvious that arthimitic is an issue for Republicans.

They have given up on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Romeny ad buys tell us what they are thinking of their chances. They have a shitload of money and still didnt buy in those states.

Do the arithmitic R's? Without those 3 states where's your path to 270?
Romney currently has a base of 191 EC that are safe or leaning. Add to those:

Florida
North Carolina
Virginia
Ohio
Iowa
Colorado

That's 281 EC. If he loses any of those states he loses the election. North Carolina is leaning Romney but trending to Obama. Florida is leaning Obama. The other states 538 gives Obama a better than 70% chance to win. Every other state has at least an 80% probability towards one candidate. I'll be interested to see the updates after the convention bounce and economic indicators have been included. We may need to wait a week for that.

At the beginning of the RNC convention 538 had Obama with a 69% probability. In the 11 days since the probability has risen now to 78%.
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