Originally Posted by Aries Walker
Exactly. We're still two months out (not to mention still basking in the glow of the conventions). Unlike every other election in the history of the Republic, Romney's side has functionally unlimited money, and he (or his Super PAC's) could drop a staggering amount of air time on those battleground states in the last few weeks. They may change minds, they may not; there's so much new about this one that things could change right up until the end.
That said, I don't think they will enough to keep Obama from winning, but the point still stands.
The undecideds are at like 7-8% now. Not a lot of chance there to make up ground. And Silver takes all the points in your post and incorperates them in this prediction model.
"Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain - and most fools do."