Thread: Elections 538
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Old 09-09-2012, 10:57 PM   #110
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
New Ohio poll out today has Obama up +5 points, 50-45

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1860.html
Quote:
Originally Posted by go bowe View Post
if the big o wins ohio it's all over...
The Obama lead is increasing says 538. Its goes beyond a convention bump as the numbers factor that already in. Obama is seen as having an 80.7% chance of winning. All those lean Obama states that were mentioned earlier have all moved to the likely category except Florida. Florida is seen as a 67% probability of being an Obama state. North Carolina is seen as a tossup, leaning slightly Romney but trending to Obama. Ohio is nearly a 75% shot that Obama takes it. Additionally Nebraska's second district has fallen out of the Romney safe category. Overall the race has moved a six percent probability towards an Obama victory as the popular vote has moved half a point in his direction within the last week. Again 538's methodology negates any temporary convention bounce.
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