Thread: Elections 538
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Old 09-10-2012, 10:05 PM   #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Does it worry you that Nate Silver is giving Romney a 17% chance of winning the elections and Obama an 83% chance of winning?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ click on now cast

Obama has a:
75% chance of taking Ohio, Virgina, Iowa?

85% chance of taking wisconsin and Nevada?
The momentum is firmly on Obama's side, especially after the RNC got zero bounce from their convention and the DNC turned around and got around a 4 point bounce after theirs. This is very similar to 2008. McCain was tied or leading slightly before the conventions but then didn't capitalize and Obama did and never looked back.
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