Thread: Elections 538
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Old 09-14-2012, 04:27 PM   #148
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Patteau, heres your update.

Romney is down to an 8.4% chance of winning.
Obama a 91.6% chance of winning
Democrats "likely" to retain majority of the senate.

This is unreal. No ****ing way should Obama be looking this good. Even if its still looking like a 51%/49% popular vote at the end.
Not sure where you are getting this. 538 has the race getting more uncertain due to his numbers being compared to what they expect for a convention bounce. I think they're trying to make the race not a slam dunk as Romney is still in his post convention bounce window too.

538 gives Obama a 78.6% chance of winning today, which is higher than it had been prior to the conventions but off of last week. Obama's numbers rose last week as the Romney bounce was not as high as a normal convention bounce. 538 is also currently projecting the popular vote to be in Obama's favor 51.3-47.5%. That only leaves 1.2% for 3rd party votes.
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