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Old 09-18-2012, 02:58 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by qabbaan View Post
The traditional pollsters are oversampling democrats and using optimistic turnout models for democrat voters. Unless you look at the sampling model you can't interpret a survey anymore.
Historically, the Democrats have a higher party ID in the exit polls (usually 3%-5%), although those norms were altered in 2004 (37 DEM - 37 GOP - 26 IND) and 2010 (36 DEM - 36 GOP - 28 IND) and in 2008 in the other direction (39 DEM - 32 GOP - 29 IND).
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