Originally Posted by RINGLEADER
Historically, the Democrats have a higher party ID in the exit polls (usually 3%-5%), although those norms were altered in 2004 (37 DEM - 37 GOP - 26 IND) and 2010 (36 DEM - 36 GOP - 28 IND) and in 2008 in the other direction (39 DEM - 32 GOP - 29 IND).
I think that, given the unprecedented turnout for Obama in '08 and the unprecedented disappointment with him now, we might be in uncharted territory. No one can predict what turnout will be like.
Certainly he can't pull what he did in 2008 with his numbers among independents and whites and his personal favorability numbers having plunged. So how can we judge polls when the turnout models aren't presented? We can't. If they are presented we can only guess what will happen on election day.
This race is probably the hardest one to handicap in modern history.