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Old 09-18-2012, 02:35 PM   #25
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Right, that had GOP +9 in the weighting. Three times what it was in 2010. [Actually, I'm looking at the poll from the day after he made his statement when everyone was trying to get him to exit]

That's all I'm saying -- anyone can manipulate poll numbers and Rasmussen on their own doesn't matter much. Our discussion on the other thread was that Rasmussen has pre-dated other polls in the trend and Gallup is reflecting the trend that Rasmussen picked up a few days ago.

I personally think this is going to be something akin to 2000 or 2004, probably closer to 2004 without the GOP parity. But I also don't think the Dems are going to turn out +6 or +7 like they did in 2008 either, nor is Obama going to win independents, but that's just a guess.
I guess I don't see they +9. Looking at the poll it was 35% R, 33% D, 32% Independent.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p..._MO_830925.pdf

Also Obama is down 10 points here in MO so it doesn't surprise me that the race with Akin will be close.

I agree with you on the turnout the race is going to be fairly close probably with Obama winning by 2-3% overall.
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