Originally Posted by RINGLEADER
Right, that had GOP +9 in the weighting. Three times what it was in 2010. [Actually, I'm looking at the poll from the day after he made his statement when everyone was trying to get him to exit]
That's all I'm saying -- anyone can manipulate poll numbers and Rasmussen on their own doesn't matter much. Our discussion on the other thread was that Rasmussen has pre-dated other polls in the trend and Gallup is reflecting the trend that Rasmussen picked up a few days ago.
I personally think this is going to be something akin to 2000 or 2004, probably closer to 2004 without the GOP parity. But I also don't think the Dems are going to turn out +6 or +7 like they did in 2008 either, nor is Obama going to win independents, but that's just a guess.
I guess I don't see they +9. Looking at the poll it was 35% R, 33% D, 32% Independent.
Also Obama is down 10 points here in MO so it doesn't surprise me that the race with Akin will be close.
I agree with you on the turnout the race is going to be fairly close probably with Obama winning by 2-3% overall.