Thread: Elections 538
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:16 PM   #201
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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As its clear the late surge by the Obama campaign is no longer attached to a convention bounce, the numbers are rocketing towards the Obama campaign. The odds of an Obama victory have climbed to 81.9%, the highest they've been in the model. Obama has gained 6.7% more probability of a win in the last week. Ohio is up to 82% probability for Obama. Without Ohio, Romney needs a different strategy that would most likely have to include Wisconsin and Iowa. Iowa has gone over 75% chance to Obama. Wisconsin is up to 88% for Obama. Obama remains forecast to receive over 50% popular vote nationally at 51.3%-47.6% for Romney. Guess he got the wrong 47%. Romney backers won't want to look at the Now Cast numbers which show that if the vote were held today, there would be a 97.8% chance of Obama victory.
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