Originally Posted by cosmo20002
I realize that "enthusiasm" is something they measure, but what if someone was "very enthusiastic" about voting for Obama in 2008 but in 2012 they are only "enthusiastic." Less enthusiasm, but they still appear to be a likely voter, and it still counts as 1 vote. 2008 didn't count "more."
At some point, you have to simply acknowledge that the professional polling agencies might know more about producing an accurate poll than you do.
Enthusiasm translates into turn-out. Dems were extemely enthusaistic about Obama in 2008, and that translated to huge turn-out. Dems and independents appear less enthusiastic about Obama this time; if that translates into suppressed turn-out, that falls in favor of Romney (many hard core conservatives are actually more motivated by hatred of Obama, than love for Romney.)
In any event, the argument makes sense...if it's true. However, this is Dick Morris--and his track record is checkered at best. Frankly though, it's Romeny's only prayer at this point short of some October surprise or serious blunders by Obama in the debates.