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Old 09-27-2012, 05:23 PM   #19
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
And by November we will find a bazillion more, retail sales will be up, and our world will all be roses and goodness! Christ you people will fall for anything.
I know it is all a conspiracy yet it happens every year

Quote:
At 8:30 a.m. on the first Friday of each month, political and financial analysts across the country begin hitting refresh on their browsers maniacally. That’s when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its monthly jobs numbers — one of the most closely-watched indicators of the state of the U.S. economy.

Yet it turns out that the monthly numbers are almost always wrong. In fact, over the past twelve months, they’ve been wildly wrong. On Thursday, BLS released newly revised data showing that the U.S. economy has actually added 386,000 more jobs in the past year than the monthly reports suggested. In other words, the average monthly BLS report over the last year has understated job growth by about 32,000 jobs.

To put it another way, the U.S. economy has been adding 194,000 jobs per month over the past year, rather than 162,000 jobs per month. That means that the country is on pace to get back to full employment by 2021 rather than after 2025, according to the Hamilton Project’s calculator. (Although it’s still a slow recovery by either measure.) It also means that the United States has now seen a net gain in jobs since President Obama took office in 2009.

Economist Justin Wolfers wonders why these revisions aren’t generating nearly as much fanfare. “Amazing how much attention a 30k miss on a monthly jobs number gets,” he writes on Twitter, “and how little follows when 386k more jobs are found in a re-benchmark.” Wolfers adds that this revision may help explain why the unemployment rate keeps nudging downward despite the apparently weak jobs growth.

According to the new BLS revisions, the United States actually shed about 67,000 government jobs at the federal, state, and local level over the past year. Private-sector jobs, by contrast, grew by 453,000 more than expected.

What explains the change? Once a year, the BLS creates a “benchmark” for its jobs numbers by poring over administrative data from companies across the country. This helps the agency generate more accurate numbers, but it also takes about 10 months to do, which is why the government has to provide rough estimates on a monthly basis. The agency will publish its final benchmark revisions Feb. 1, 2013.

But the sweeping revision suggests we could probably stand to put a little less emphasis on those monthly jobs reports.
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