Originally Posted by alnorth
Common sense. Its easy to get election day right, people who are playing fair know whats going to happen, and people who have stupidly skewed polls can change their likely voter screen to show a "collapse" or "shocking comeback" to save their own asses. Huge swings used to happen, but not any more. Undecided voters are now very, very few so you can't point to Reagan or his predecessors.
The best way to judge a poll is 4-5 weeks out, since debates don't change much any more and there's usually no huge shocking event that swings votes. By that measure, Rasmussen sucked ass in 2010, and he and Dick Morris will again be stupidly far off in 2012.
This is fiction. There is plenty of movement in the final weeks. If there weren't, political pros wouldn't spend gazillions on ads in the final weeks.