Thread: Elections 538
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Old 10-03-2012, 07:57 PM   #236

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Right now sitting at 86.1% for Obama. Expected popular vote is 51.5-47.4 for Obama. Of the "battleground states" Obama is expected to take Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia and New Hampshire with better than a 75% probability for each. Florida is near 70% for Obama while North Carolina favors Romney 62%.

I would be interested in seeing how the debate will change the numbers. Usually a debate bounce is somewhere from 2-3 points or less in favor of the challenger. Surprisingly Mondale got the biggest bounce, but was coming from so far behind it was irrelevant.
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