Thread: Elections Debate Bounce
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Old 10-05-2012, 01:00 PM   #6
alnorth alnorth is online now
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This is far, far, far too early to say. This weekend's numbers may also be too early, you need to wait till Monday or Tuesday.

Based on history though, Romney's probably not going to get much of a bounce. Even if you factor in that Romney got one of the clearest "won the debate" flash polls in a while, there is a very weak correlation between perception of who won the debate, and actual change in the poll results.

We've had many elections where the candidate perceived to have lost a debate actually improved in the polls the following week.
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