Thread: Elections Debate Bounce
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Old 10-08-2012, 03:38 PM   #49
qabbaan qabbaan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
We'll see if the 12-point swing from Pew, combined with the 5-point swings in Rasmussen and Gallup, has any impact on Nate Silver's analysis. I'm sure Obama's chances will probably go from 83% to 87% or some other such nonsense.
There is a lot here that doesn't make any sense, if you believed the pre-debate polls. Among others:

Supposedly, debates don't matter very much in modern times. So why the huge swing?

Supposedly, the number of undecideds was minuscule. So why the huge swing?

Our resident experts said Ohio was out of play and Florida was nearly so. So why the huge swing?


But most interesting to me: the turnout models being used by pollsters which heavily favored Democrats were said to be solid projections of turnout for Obama, that is to say, that we should expect turnout around 2008 levels for democrats.

So why the huge swing? Did they change the turnout models? Was Romney always ahead, but the debate created a few more percentage points, enough to bleed into even rosy turnout models?

What's the truth here?
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