Thread: Elections 538
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Old 10-12-2012, 04:40 PM   #331
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
This is complete bullshit, and I heavily doubt we'd be seeing so much bold and caps from you if he was showing Romney up by whatever percentage.

People in this thread fundamentally don't understand statistics or modeling - it's just bizarre. And they're ANGRY about it.
You may want to read my entire post and try to understand it before you spout off like a ****ing idiot. Nothing in my post is bullshit, and if you think I don't understand statistics or modeling than I'd love to see what you base that on. Certainly nothing in my post could lead you to that conclusion.

I state very clearly in my post that I have no problem with Silver. My problem is with the people who try to beat you over the head with his model as if it's a proven predictor of results. It's not. That's pure malarkey. You go on in the next few posts to state many of the reasons why this is the case... so I'm not sure why you think my original post is "bullshit". There simply isn't enough data and (at this point in time) his model is no better than my guesses. I am not saying his model is no better than random guessing nor am I saying his model won't prove it's worth over time and with more data.. I'm talking about why it is mostly "entertainment" at this point and should be viewed as such. If you disagree, are you willing to bet a large amount of money using his model as your sole guide?

This reminds of the article on accuracy regarding weather forecasting.
http://www.freakonomics.com/2008/04/...her-forecasts/
It's not exactly the same but there are some similarities..
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