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Old 10-15-2012, 06:03 PM   #18
DaveNull DaveNull is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2011
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Hard to believe that you still think that people *want* laptop replacements.

Here's how things are going to go down:

Apple will release a 7" tablet and sell the living hell out of them, while actually making a profit. This ends up being something that none of the other OEMs can't do.

The Nexus will get hit the hardest, but Google may actually be losing money on each of those units anyway. It probably remains the best Android tablet out there, and therefore great for folks that dump all their stuff into the Google ecosystem.

Samsung will continue to get down into the mud with expensive advertising that appeals to their base, release tablets that won't ever see an operating system upgrade and won't see much, if any, profit from it. Their nasty ads do a great job of riling up their fan base but alienate potential customers and drives Apple to stop buying components from them within two years.

People that hate Apple on principle will point to sales of Android tablets as some sign of victory against the Man even though nobody actually makes money off Android tablets. Great for people that like cheap devices, yelling on the internet and feeling different because you don't carry Apple hardware. Not so great for anyone invested in OEMs making Android tablets except for Amazon.

Amazon still won't say how many Kindle XYZs they make but will have high revenue numbers. They break even on their devices and make it up on content.

Microsoft will eventually release the Surface, which will be overshadowed by how terrible Windows 8 reviews are. They end up pushing their OEMs to Android because they want license fees for each copy of Windows 8 and the OEMs are pissed that suddenly they're really in competition with Microsoft. Ballmer has already come out to say they want an integrated solution. Google (with the Nexus) doesn't care. The Nexus is a reference device for their OEMs and make money off the advertising.

The Microsoft hardware will be OK, but their cover will under deliver. This ends up hurting both the Windows and Office brands overall. Office will suffer more because once the general consumer realizes that the experience of using Office on a touch device sucks and realizes that they've been getting along fine without it on iOS for quite some time.

So to recap:

Apple: Releases a 7" tablet and makes $$$
Google: Doesn't care about their hardware but the glut of Android devices delivers lots and lots of ad words
Amazon: Continues to make a decent pile of $$$ from selling content on their branded devices
Microsoft: Sees their brand diminished on the desktop, remaining marginalized on tablets and phones while they continue to do cool shit on the server side. Inexplicably Ballmer keeps his job.
RIM: Bankruptcy by June

Android partisans: Claim victory based on market share even though none of these companies stay in business because of market share alone while amassing a larger pile of obsolete cheaply made hardware
Apple partisans: Love their stuff, still looks at Android as a cheap knock off
Apple investors: Talk to their accountants about buying some RIM stock to offset their obscene gains on AAPL for tax purposes
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