Thread: Elections 538
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Old 10-16-2012, 12:43 AM   #345
mnchiefsguy mnchiefsguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Numbers are shifting back to Obama the last few days. Obama picked up ground in 5 of 10 national polls published today, while Romney increased in none. From the last time I posted Virginia has moved towards Obama with almost no advantage now to either candidate (50.3% to Obama). Colorado has moved from lean Romney to lean Obama (52.5%). Florida still remains in the Romney category. 538 gives Obama a 66% chance of victory.
http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...llege_map.html

RCP seems to disagree. Electoral College is down to 201 to 191, with the rest being toss ups. Romney is continuing to gain in the "likability" rating, up to 4.8 from a -1.2 just before the first debate.

As much as Nate Silver does not want to admit it, this is a dogfight, and is going to be a very, very close election. I think the 66% number is soft.
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