Originally Posted by RINGLEADER
A lot of people give NS crap because he doesn't seem to pick up the Romney moves, but the big reason why his analysis weights the chances of an Obama win so high begins and ends with the letter O. Flip Ohio and all Romney has to do is win one more from NH, IA, WI, CO, or NV.
Get 2-3 polls with OH in Romney's column and the 538 analysis is going to change in a very big way.
I agree that if Romney can flip Ohio to his column, it opens many paths to the presidency. But, Obama bailing out GM and Chrysler is Obama's firewall in Ohio.