Originally Posted by whoman69
In the senate 538 sees the Democrats holding. They see Democrats winning in 22 contests. Of those contest the least like Democratic win is in Connecticut with a 79% chance of victory there. If that holds the final numbers would have 52 Democrats (including 2 independents) and 48 Republicans, a net +1 for Republicans.
In the 11 contests where Republicans are winning, several are tenuous at best. Montana has 56.8% chance of Republican victory, Indiana 63.8 and Arizona is 68.6%. Republicans are only given a 12.4% chance of taking back the Senate.
I was guessing it would be 50-50 all along.. then Akin showed his ass and I switched it to 51-49... I'd be surprised if 51-49 doesn't end up the final number... but hell we could see 50-50 and 269-269 electoral split with split Pres/VP ticket that keeps the Senate with the Dems in charge! how weird would that be! (yes, I know that is very very very unlikely, but it is possible)