Thread: Elections 538
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Old 10-22-2012, 03:02 AM   #398
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
In the senate 538 sees the Democrats holding. They see Democrats winning in 22 contests. Of those contest the least like Democratic win is in Connecticut with a 79% chance of victory there. If that holds the final numbers would have 52 Democrats (including 2 independents) and 48 Republicans, a net +1 for Republicans.

In the 11 contests where Republicans are winning, several are tenuous at best. Montana has 56.8% chance of Republican victory, Indiana 63.8 and Arizona is 68.6%. Republicans are only given a 12.4% chance of taking back the Senate.
I could see that.

Maybe the GOP squeezes out one more, but depends on it Romney overperforms.
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