Thread: Elections 538
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:18 PM   #486
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
If you consider the uncertainty in polling, you could say that this the absolute best case scenario that Romney has right now, if the true state of the race resides in the favorable part of the error bar in every state race. You could also call this wishful thinking. It's akin to saying "If I had to bet, I'd say Obama takes Florida". There just aren't polls to support this point of view.
um, no.

New Hampshire- Romney is ahead right now, period.
Colorado- Romney is ahead or tied depending on the poll.
Iowa- Romney is ahead or tied.
Virginia- Romney is ahead.

Yes, all of these states are within the margin of error but the polls show a decided shift towards Romney that keeps building. If you use the most current polls it's pretty clear... but who knows if this is a real trend or will adjust back in the next week. Hence my "right now" qualifier.
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