Thread: Elections 538
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Old 10-25-2012, 11:38 PM   #494
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
um, no.

New Hampshire- Romney is ahead right now, period.
Colorado- Romney is ahead or tied depending on the poll.
Iowa- Romney is ahead or tied.
Virginia- Romney is ahead.

Yes, all of these states are within the margin of error but the polls show a decided shift towards Romney that keeps building. If you use the most current polls it's pretty clear... but who knows if this is a real trend or will adjust back in the next week. Hence my "right now" qualifier.
You're biased in your presentation of raw polls. From 538, latest 5 polls in each state:

New Hampshire

Most recent Romney, 3/5 Romeny

Colorado

Most recent 3 Obama, 4/5 Obama

Iowa

Most recent Obama, 4/5 Obama

Virginia

Most recent Obama, 3/5 Romeny

When Nate Silver aggregates, all of these states are in Obama's column. His estimates include an estimate of uncertainty. Sure he could be off, but I doubt it is by so much that the true state of the race has all 4 of these states as most likely in Romeny's column.

Last edited by cdcox; 10-25-2012 at 11:47 PM..
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