Originally Posted by AustinChief
New Hampshire- Romney is ahead right now, period.
Colorado- Romney is ahead or tied depending on the poll.
Iowa- Romney is ahead or tied.
Virginia- Romney is ahead.
Yes, all of these states are within the margin of error but the polls show a decided shift towards Romney that keeps building. If you use the most current polls it's pretty clear... but who knows if this is a real trend or will adjust back in the next week. Hence my "right now" qualifier.
You're biased in your presentation of raw polls
. From 538, latest 5 polls in each state:
Most recent Romney, 3/5 Romeny
Most recent 3 Obama, 4/5 Obama
Most recent Obama, 4/5 Obama
Most recent Obama, 3/5 Romeny
When Nate Silver aggregates, all of these states are in Obama's column. His estimates include an estimate of uncertainty. Sure he could be off, but I doubt it is by so much that the true state of the race has all 4 of these states as most likely in Romeny's column.