Thread: Elections 538
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:59 PM   #498
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
When Nate Silver aggregates, all of these states are in Obama's column. His estimates include an estimate of uncertainty. Sure he could be off, but I doubt it is by so much that the true state of the race has all 4 of these states as most likely in Romeny's column.
I do not use 538 to look at recent polls and don't talk about BIAS, you are using some shitty polls (and outdated) there same as Silver. I simply don't trust PPP, never have, never will. So yes, I throw PPP out. I also am not looking at polls that I have never heard of.. even if they support Romney, it doesn't matter, I just don;t trust "no name" polls. They may be perfectly valid but I certainly would put more trust in Rasmussen or Gallup than Grove or Wenzel.

So yes, I can be accused of "brand name" bias and a bias against PPP. Guilty as charged there.

And once again, I have little to no faith in Silver's projections because I think a) his weighting is flawed and b) the polls themselves are skewed by an attempt to hold them to a 2008 model that I personally don;t think will apply this year.

I could be completely wrong, but I doubt it and we'll see in a 12 days.

Again this isn't a prediction of a Romney win, on the contrary, right now it is simply a prediction of a close loss.
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