Originally Posted by cdcox
When Nate Silver aggregates, all of these states are in Obama's column. His estimates include an estimate of uncertainty. Sure he could be off, but I doubt it is by so much that the true state of the race has all 4 of these states as most likely in Romeny's column.
I do not use 538 to look at recent polls and don't talk about BIAS, you are using some shitty polls (and outdated) there same as Silver. I simply don't trust PPP, never have, never will. So yes, I throw PPP out. I also am not looking at polls that I have never heard of.. even if they support Romney, it doesn't matter, I just don;t trust "no name" polls. They may be perfectly valid but I certainly would put more trust in Rasmussen or Gallup than Grove or Wenzel.
So yes, I can be accused of "brand name" bias and a bias against PPP. Guilty as charged there.
And once again, I have little to no faith in Silver's projections because I think a) his weighting is flawed and b) the polls themselves are skewed by an attempt to hold them to a 2008 model that I personally don;t think will apply this year.
I could be completely wrong, but I doubt it and we'll see in a 12 days.
Again this isn't a prediction of a Romney win, on the contrary, right now
it is simply a prediction of a close loss.