Thread: Elections 538
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Old 10-25-2012, 11:08 PM   #504
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I do not use 538 to look at recent polls and don't talk about BIAS, you are using some shitty polls (and outdated) there same as Silver. I simply don't trust PPP, never have, never will. So yes, I throw PPP out. I also am not looking at polls that I have never heard of.. even if they support Romney, it doesn't matter, I just don;t trust "no name" polls. They may be perfectly valid but I certainly would put more trust in Rasmussen or Gallup than Grove or Wenzel.

So yes, I can be accused of "brand name" bias and a bias against PPP. Guilty as charged there.

And once again, I have little to no faith in Silver's projections because I think a) his weighting is flawed and b) the polls themselves are skewed by an attempt to hold them to a 2008 model that I personally don;t think will apply this year.

I could be completely wrong, but I doubt it and we'll see in a 12 days.

Again this isn't a prediction of a Romney win, on the contrary, right now it is simply a prediction of a close loss.
You know Rasmussen doesn't include households that don't have a home phone? You think households without landlines might be biased toward younger people?

You know that Gallup has a rightward bias?
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