Thread: Elections 538
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Old 10-26-2012, 10:08 AM   #507
patteeu patteeu is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Self identified party affiliation is fluid. Someone who self identifies as a R one week might claim they are an indy the next. So I don't put any weight on that.

It's a little harder to change your mind on your sex. I don't see any way that the gender gap gets erased in both directions, that Romeny is picking up support among women at the same time he is losing it among men. Just seems incredibly unlikely.
Sure it is. How often does your self-identified party affiliation change?

With all the challenges of collecting a good random sample (land line vs cell phone vs social media, hangups etc.) I'm not sure it's a winning assumption to assume randomness and discount the meaning of party affiliation as opposed to assuming party affiliation accuracy and discounting the randomness.

I agree with you about the gender gap part though. It might narrow, but it's not going away.
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