Thread: Elections 538
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Old 10-26-2012, 05:31 PM   #519
patteeu patteeu is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC Dan View Post
Here is a 2010 Nevada Senate race prediction on Nov. 2nd from Nostradamus himself:

Stage of forecastReid
Democrat
Angle
Republican
Size of lead
Weighted polling average 45.5 47.8

+2.3
Adjusted polling average 44.7 46.8

+2.1
538 regression 39.4 49.9

+10.6
538 snapshot 44.2 47.2

+3.0
Nov. 2 projection 47.2 4.0 pct. pt.
50.2 4.0 pct. pt.


+3.0
Percentage chance that candidate wins race16.6%83.4%
Stage of forecastReid
Democrat
Angle
Republican
Size of lead
Weighted polling average 45.5 47.8

+2.3
Adjusted polling average 44.7 46.8

+2.1
538 regression 39.4 49.9

+10.6
538 snapshot 44.2 47.2

+3.0
Nov. 2 projection 47.2 4.0 pct. pt.
50.2 4.0 pct. pt.


+3.0
Percentage chance that candidate wins race16.6%83.4%
Angle 83.4%
Reid 16.6%

It's math.
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