Thread: Elections 538
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Old 10-26-2012, 05:37 PM   #521
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC Dan View Post
Here is a 2010 Nevada Senate race prediction on Nov. 2nd from Nostradamus himself:

Stage of forecastReid
Democrat
Angle
Republican
Size of lead
Weighted polling average 45.5 47.8

+2.3
Adjusted polling average 44.7 46.8

+2.1
538 regression 39.4 49.9

+10.6
538 snapshot 44.2 47.2

+3.0
Nov. 2 projection 47.2 ± 4.0 pct. pt.
50.2 ± 4.0 pct. pt.


+3.0
Percentage chance that candidate wins race16.6%83.4%
Stage of forecastReid
Democrat
Angle
Republican
Size of lead
Weighted polling average 45.5 47.8

+2.3
Adjusted polling average 44.7 46.8

+2.1
538 regression 39.4 49.9

+10.6
538 snapshot 44.2 47.2

+3.0
Nov. 2 projection 47.2 ± 4.0 pct. pt.
50.2 ± 4.0 pct. pt.


+3.0
Percentage chance that candidate wins race16.6%83.4%
Angle 83.4%
Reid 16.6%
Of the 37 senate races, they got 35 right and you want to cherry pick one of those two? You also failed to point out both of those races they favored Republicans.
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