Every major poll has Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the pivotal state of Ohio.In the last 70 years Ohio has selected the winner EVERY year except in 1960. This year should be no different.
Now I am born and raised in Ohio and have spent OVER 50 years here. I doubt seriously that NO person who understands investing ,predicting the future and knows more about Ohio politics than me.
First question is why is the national media polls (even Fox )all showing Mr Obama with a lead or a tie? It is simple and you can decide for yourself once I lay out my FACTS,whether these pollsters are ignorant or intentionally dishonest
In 2008 Obama won Ohio by 262, 224 votes out of over 5.6 million votes
However McCain won over 60 of Ohio’s 88 counties . 4 counties, Cuyahoga where I live,Summit its neighboring county, Lucas near Toledo and Franklin in Columbus. Voted for Obama last time by 453,135 more than McCain
So Obviously Obama “needs” a big showing in these 4 counties because the other 84 counties selected John McCain by almost 200,000 votes
I doubt seriously that few if any McCain voters would switch their vote this time to Obama but MANY union workers who aren’t working will no doubt switch
I have reason to believe that those 4 counties will not provide enough votes to carry BHO to victory
Lets examine the largest Cuyahoga County, where I have resided since I was 3 years old.
Last election it carried Obama by 245,467 votes,almost the entire margin of victory.
This county where I live WILL go Obama again but the question is by how much
There was almost 1.1 million voters in Cuyahoga County last year and this year there is 916,000 almost 200,000 less
But there are now 26% more Republicans and 11% less Democrats in Cuyahoga county
The city of Cleveland which is by far the largest city in Cuyahoga County
There are almost 100,000 less registered voters in the city Cleveland in 2012 than in 2008. Part of that is due to the housing crisis and part of that is due to John Kasich the Republican governor, purging the voting rolls of many voters who were not purged under Democratic governor Ted Strickland.
I wont bore you with the”math” but my projections shows Mr Obama winning Cuyahoga county by about 100,000 votes which is about 145,000 less than last time.
Franklin county also has considerably less voters than last time and my projection is that Obama will only carry Franklin by around 16,000 votes a difference of 82,842
So basically in the other 86 counties Romney has to get about 326 more votes in EACH than he did last time
Trust me it is GOING TO happen EASILY
If these Democratic bastions are not supporting the President, how can you think the cities and counties that supported John McCain last time aren’t going to come out in record numbers?
Cuyahoga Falls,Sydney, Cincinnati Defiance all have had record crowds
Cuyahoga Falls drew 13,000 on a Tuesday night when it was under 50 degrees and I talked to a couple last night who were among a large group of thousands who were turned away.
I have talked to at least a dozen lifetime Democrats UNION Construction workers who are voting for Romney because they aren’t working.
Yesterday I drove through Parma Ohio which is the 2nd biggest city in Cuyahoga county. It is full of auto workers and union workers who are traditionally Democratic almost all white voters.
In 2008 the ratio of Democratic signs to Republicans signs were about 4 Democratic signs for every Republican sign. Yesterday the ratio was 3 Mitt signs for every 2 Obama signs. That is a HUGE differential
Then I drove through to the edges of Cuyahoga county and through Summit county which went to Obama by over 43,000 votes in 2008. I counted 45 Romney signs and 10 Obama signs in the 25 minute drive.
I am writing this article because Obama and his minions are using the only tactic left to try and win this: FEAR.
The media wants you to think that BHO has a solid lead in OHIO.But folks it just isn’t true
In part 3 of this series I will explain how the pollsters have this wrong and what INCENTIVES they have to do so
I will also show you detailed “polling” and will show you the actual”math” in coming to my conclusion which i would love to see “the experts” try and deny.