Originally Posted by oldandslow
Real clear politics as of 7:09 on Halloween night have the race at a tie. They take all polls and average them.
I tend to think this favors BO because of his lead in BG states, but what the hell do I know.
Any of you, who follow the stock market, know what a moving average is.
Typically, you can have a break out movement, which moves the market above the average, and it takes some time before the moving average catches up to where the market is.
This averaging of the polls would tend to lag any real, substantive movements in opinion.
With that said, there has been a definite movement towards Romney, all the polls clearly indicate that. There are outlier polls, which get averaged into this poll, thus, they skew the results to a middle area.
Finally, the models are only as good as the electorate. If you believe, the composition, and makeup of this years electorate, is going to REMOTELY resemble that of 2008, then I have some fine, ready to move in beach front property in Jersey I would like to close on with you by the end of tomorrow.