Thread: Elections 538
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Old 11-01-2012, 03:21 PM   #755
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
By all means, lay out the analysis you've used to come to your conclusion that Romney's going to win this election by four points.
The only way you can come to that conclusion based on the current available data is:

1) GOP narrows or eliminates any party ID advantage that Obama enjoys in the current polls;
2) Romney maintains high single to double-digit advantage in Independents.

If Dems are +5 or greater there is no way Romney can win.
If Dems are +1 or less there is no way Obama can win.

Anywhere in between is a coin flip IMO.

ON EDIT: One caveat (which is what Obama and a lot of the polls are counting on BTW): if the sub-groups that Obama is leading by big numbers that have room to move (Latinos, and to a smaller extent, women) actually do move then it is conceivable that Obama can win outside of the party ID assumptions. The same holds true for Romney if he over-performs with these groups...
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