Thread: Elections 538
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Old 11-03-2012, 09:48 AM   #862
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
BO is an overwhelming favorite in the polls, nothing else. For one reason or another most pollsters are skewing their polls to reflect a significant Democrat turnout. I think this is based off of 2008 turnout. Meaning the pollsters are unwilling to accept that Obama's brand has been tarnished. I'm not saying the Obama can't win, I'm saying that media pollsters are being to kind to Democrats in this cycle.
Silver covers that in his column today. That's really Romeny's only chance. He estimates the odds of the polls being biased enough for Romeny to win at 16% based on historical comparisons of polling results and election outcomes dating back to 1968.

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