Thread: Elections 538
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Old 11-03-2012, 11:35 AM   #866
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Silver covers that in his column today. That's really Romeny's only chance. He estimates the odds of the polls being biased enough for Romeny to win at 16% based on historical comparisons of polling results and election outcomes dating back to 1968.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ed/#more-37099

This is absolutely true (and gives NS a great out in the event his 80+% guess for Obama is wrong). If you look at it from a wholly dispassionate and non-partisan point of view there is just no way that Romney can be tied or trailing in 11 out of 11 polls and then win. Even with the party identification being skewed. It's just not statistically possible. And if it happens the whole "science" will be permanently called into question and Romney will become the Richard Jewell of political polling.

That said, if you apply the early voting to the advantage most polls show Romney enjoying with election day voters, then you end up with numbers that are very very close not only in OH, but also in NV and IA.

Again, if you look at it dispassionately.
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