Thread: Elections 538
View Single Post
Old 11-03-2012, 02:56 PM   #873
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5000
538 has been busy. I saw at least 3 updates last evening, so they're working overtime. The latest simulation has Obama winning 83.7% of the time.The popular vote is forecast at 50.6-48.4 or a difference of 2.2 points.

Battleground states in order of closeness are:
Florida Romney 54.8%
Virginia Obama 67.0%
Colorado Obama 67.9%
New Hampshire Obama 80.4%
Iowa Obama 80.7%
Ohio Obama 83.8%
Nevada 88.7%

All other states are at least 90% towards one candidate. Friday's polling numbers showed Obama with the lead in 19 of 21 polls done in battleground states. 538 does not show that Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin are competitive. Romney is campaigning in Pennsylvania to try to give himself another way to win electorally.

Obama has at least 80% probability in states that have 281 EC
Obama has at least 65% probability in states that have 303 EC
__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote