Originally Posted by WoodDraw
Poor Nate Silver is getting hammered in the press. After the election he's either going to be the happiest person on earth or on suicide watch.
The funny thing is his model could even be right despite a Romney win, but he'll get hammered because people generally suck at statistics. We see big numbers with a percent next to it, and mentally categorize that as a guarantee. There's a joke floating around out there touching on this that says something like, "Obama's up to 81% on 538! Romney's only got like a million to 1 shot!"