Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla
It's not that we don't understand them; it's that we wouldn't likely be able to reproduce them with 100% accuracy. However, it's not like his data points are great mysteries. We know (within an acceptable epsilon) what he's using and we can approximate his outcomes very accurately.
But you haven't done it. I'm not criticizing your intelligence or your ability to understand his model given enough exposure to it and enough time to work on it. I'm saying at this point in time, you don't know it. And most of the people running with Silver's projections as indicators of how the election will turn out have even less of an idea what he's doing than you do.
"Well, it is one thing for Bill Clinton to say, I feel your pain. It is another thing for Barack Obama to say I feel your pain that I have caused." - George Will