Thread: Elections 538
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:27 PM   #1239
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 94.1% of the time with an average of 314.4 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.9-48.2 or a 2.7 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 52.5% Obama
North Carolina 72.4% Romney
Colorado 80.3% Obama
Virginia 80.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.9% Obama
Iowa 85.0% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 80%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

There will probably be another update after midnight. I think the reason for the move towards Obama is there is no more time for Romney to make up ground. The forecast is equal to the now cast vote.
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