Thread: Elections 538
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Old 11-07-2012, 07:07 AM   #1458
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538 is so far perfect on the presidential race with only Florida left. 538 predicted an Obama victory there and with the current count Obama leads by just over 46000 votes.

538 has a bit less accurate on the Senate where polls are fewer and far between. For example, he couldn't call Indiana until a post Mourdock bombshell poll came out about 20 days after the fact. As it looks right now, even though races in MT and ND aren't called, that he predicted 31 of 33 races. If anything, despite the claims of liberal bias, when he errs he errs on the side of Republicans.

538 predicted a Republican victory for Berg in North Dakota with a 92.5% chance. Guess he shouldn't have trusted right leaning polls Rasmussen and Mason Dixon so much. 538 also predicted a 66% chance of a Rehberg victory in Montana despite the fact that Tester had been ahead in most of the polls including a 10/29 Rasmussen poll. At least the North Dakota race was pretty close.
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